During his U.S. hotel overview presentation yesterday at the Americas Lodging Investment Summit, Mark Lomanno, president of Smith Travel Research, revealed the Hendersonville, Tennessee-based research firm’s updated forecast for 2010 and 2011.
2010 will bring more challenges, including performance declines in average daily rate (-3.2 percent to US$94.39) and revenue per available room (-3.2 percent to US$51.99). Occupancy growth will finish the year flat at 55.1 percent.
And despite improvement by the second half of the year, true recovery won’t surface until 2011, when the industry will see growth in all three performance metrics. STR projects a 2.2-percent occupancy increase to 56.3 percent, a 2.0-percent bump in ADR to US$96.28, and a 4.2-percent rise to US$54.18.
For more information, read “STR releases updated forecasts for 2010, 2011” or view Mark’s presentation slideshow. (Free HotelNewsNow.com online registration required.)
It’s been a busy few days for data. STR Global recently released its year-end performance updates for the four global regions.
Asia/Pacific: During 2009, the Asia/Pacific region’s occupancy fell 6.9 percent to 60.7 percent, average daily rate decreased 13.5 percent to US$119.91, and revenue per available room was down 19.4 percent to US$72.74 when reported in U.S. dollars.
Read “STR Global posts year-end '09, Dec. '09 results for Asia/Pacific.”
Americas: Overall for 2009, the region’s occupancy dropped 8.7 percent to 55.3 percent, average daily rate fell 9.1 percent to US$99.08, and revenue per available room dropped 16.9 percent to US$54.81.
Read “STR Global posts Americas results for Dec. '09, year-end '09.”
Europe: Europe posted an occupancy decline of 6.2 percent to 61.1 percent, an ADR drop of 16.0 percent to US$131.94 and a RevPAR decrease of 21.2 percent to US$80.64 when reported in U.S. dollars.
Read “STR Global posts year-end '09, Dec. '09 results for Europe.”
Middle East/Africa: The region’s occupancy in 2009 dropped 10.9 percent to 62.0 percent, average daily rate decreased 2.7 percent to US$153.91, and revenue per available room decreased 13.3 percent to US$95.44 when reported in U.S. dollars.
Read “STR Global posts Middle East/Africa Dec. '09, year-end '09 results.”
As part of HotelNewsNow.com’s continuing coverage of ALIS, we’ve posted two new articles to our site today. In the first, editorial director Jeff Higley surveys the view from the top during a general session—and the outlook could be better. Group business, which drove the industry’s poor performance in 2009, isn’t likely to rebound in the first half of the year, meaning don’t expect any hope of recovery any time soon.
There is a bright side to this so-so outlook: Shrinking supply growth is taking some pressure off of industry fundamentals. Also, the panelists say the year is rife with opportunities for expanding portfolios. There won’t be as many distressed hotels pushed into the transaction market are first projected a year ago, but there will be select opportunities that could yield solid returns if your timing is right.
For more on this subject, read “Hotel leaders project slow path to recovery.”
For all those data wonks out there, be sure to check out associate news editor Shawn A. Turner’s coverage of ALIS’s annual data panel featuring the industry’s top research firms. According to his article, it appears the number crunchers and the CEOs can agree on one thing: 2010 won’t bring with it the recovery everyone had hoped—but that doesn’t mean we’re in for a worse year than 2009. On the contrary, we’re definitely at the bottom of the cycle, the panelists agreed, so there’s nowhere to go but up. Demand growth will start during the second half of this year, with meaningful recovery likely in 2011.
For more information, read “Bad news for now, but recovery on the horizon.”
American Express’ global corporate travel sales might have shrunk 30 percent in 2009, but the news isn’t all bad. The company’s fourth-quarter earnings were US$4.1 billion, down only 5 percent from the same period during 2008, according to BTNonline.com. That stabilization is a good sign that recovery is on the way—eventually.
For now, overall card member spending increases and positive credit and economic indicators helped boost AmEx’s overall performance numbers. The company reported a net income of US$715 million during the quarter, a 198-percent increase over the fourth quarter of 2008—the first full reporting period following the financial industry fallout led by the collapse of Lehman Brothers and federal government bailout of AIG.
Despite the stagnant development climate last year, at least two major hotel chains kept the cogs of progress a-churnin’.
Hilton Worldwide added 302 new hotels comprising more than 45,000 rooms in 2009. That number is topped only by the chain’s 2008 performance, during which it opened 327 properties.
Read “Hilton reports strong development in 2009.”
Choice Hotels International opened 524 new hotels in 2009, thanks to the final addition of 42 new hotels for the month of December, marking a grand total of more than 43,000 rooms.
Read “Choice opens 524 hotels in 2009.”
Compiled by Patrick Mayock.
