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5 things to know: 14 September 2011

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14 September 2011


Story Highlights
  • Horwath global survey reports positive sentiment.
  • HIP index stays flat in August.
  • Google releases flight-booking tool.
  • Property-level projections are wrong: Hennis.
  • U.S. hotel investment parameters become more aggressive: USRC.

Horwath HTL released its mid-year Global Hotel Market Sentiment Survey with positive results.

Africa and the Middle East was the only world region to register negative sentiment with regard to actual operating performance in the first half of 2011. Although hoteliers in Africa and the Middle East are expecting improved operating performance in the second half of 2011, Africa and the Middle East was also the only world region to report a negative outlook for the second half of 2011.

Business activity among U.S. hotels stayed nearly flat during August, according to the latest reading of e-forecasting.com’s Hotel Industry Pulse index. 

The Hotel Industry Pulse index, or HIP, is a composite indicator that gauges overall monthly business conditions in the U.S. hotel industry. The measure edged up 0.1% in August to 101.8, following an increase of 0.7% in July. The index was set to equal 100 in 2005.

After much anticipation, Google finally released yesterday its airline-booking tool—Google Flights. While the model differs from Google’s Hotel Finder on the back end in that Google is pulling flight information from its own ITA Software, the end result for users is not much different.

Final prices from the airlines are identified as ads, and users are directed to “Book” directly with the airline websites. There are no links to third-party aggregators, as opposed to Google’s Hotel Finder tool, which directs most traffic to third parties.  

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Steve Hennis at STR Analytics, sister company of HotelNewsNow.com, today provides the third and final installment of his “All projections are wrong” series by looking at property-level projections.

One of the common problems with property forecasts is the simple fact that in nearly every budget meeting or investment committee, the subject property’s occupancy and/or ADR penetrations show incremental improvement. And it doesn’t take an advanced math degree to realize that it is statistically impossible for every hotel to improve its yield penetration index. Someone has to lose in order for someone to gain.

Despite economic volatility, a roller-coaster stock market, and fears of a double-dip recession, the Mid Year 2011 US Realty Consultants Hotel Investment Survey indicates that overall investment parameters for both limited-service and full-service hotels have continued to become more aggressive. And perhaps equally important, anticipation of future ADR growth, closely correlated to hotel profitability, continues to improve. The current Mid Year 2011 survey clearly reflects expectations that the recovery is underway and on solid footing.

More specifically, full-service capitalization rates moved lower by 50 basis points to 7.9%, and discount rates for both full-service and limited-service hotels continued to decline.

Full-service discount rates are now at their lowest level in survey history—10 basis points lower than the previous record low seen during the winter of 2007 survey, prior to the economic slowdown of early 2008.

Compiled by Stacey Higgins. 

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1 Comments
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19 September 2011 at 6:55 PM Central Time
In response to: 5 things to know: 14 September 2011
Victor Stanescu commented:
The Google flights search is soon going to be the most used tool for Flight Search! The next step AIR Google: vectorash.ro/air-google-best-user-experience-while-crashing/



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