BERMUDA – 2008 may have ended on a dour note, and challenges still lie ahead, but the travel-and-tourism industry will rebound by 2010 with steady growth that will continue throughout the decade, according to Jean-Claude Baumgarten, president of the World Travel & Tourism Council.

“We are not in the car industry … travel and tourism is resilient,” he said during a general session at the Caribbean Hotel & Tourism Investment Conference.

The industry, which represents 10 percent of the world gross domestic product, experienced 1.8-percent growth in 2008, according to data compiled by the WTTC. The council projected contraction of 3.6 percent in 2009, followed by an average growth of 4 percent to round out the next 10 years.

“Travel and tourism will continue to be strong in mature markets,” Baumgarten said.

Jean-Claude Baumgarten, president of the WTTC, said the organization expects the travel-and-tourism industry to pick up in 2010.

Of those markets, the U.S. is the biggest travel-and-tourism economy in the world and will remain like that during the next 10 years, he said.

That’s not to count out emerging markets. The speaker acknowledged the Middle East for its impressive growth and said it likely will continue that trend. Another region experiencing considerable growth is China – for inbound and outbound travelers.

“It’s amazing this country, when you open it up, how people are streaming to Macau or going overseas,” Baumgarten said. “By 2020, there will be 100 million Chinese going overseas, maybe more. … China is also a destination, so it’s developing a full-fledged travel-and-tourism economy.”

While niche markets probably are still growing, travelers favor traditional destinations more than adventurous, niche markets in times of crisis, Baumgarten said.

The Caribbean

The Caribbean travel-and-tourism sector represents 16 percent of the region’s total GDP, the highest such percentage for any region in the world, according to the WTTC. Similar to the sector across the globe, it will experience an average of 3.3-percent growth during the next 10 years – but not before a difficult 2009.

“2008 experienced moderate growth in travel and tourism, but the reversal in global, as well as regional growth, is likely to make 2009 a year of heavy contraction,” Baumgarten said. The negative impact on the travel-and-tourism industry in 2009 looks very worrisome with initial data indicating a depressed sector.”

Travel and tourism will contract by 7.9 percent this year, he said.

Baumgarten advised Caribbean leaders diversify the region’s target market.

“The region is currently overly dependent on North American tourists,” he said. “A consequent shock to U.S. consumer confidence has an extreme impact on the Caribbean travel-and-tourism sector.”