STR's final forecast for 2016 U.S. hotel performance projects full-year ADR and RevPAR growth of 3.1% and flat occupancy at 65.4%, with moderate but continual growth expected for 2017.
HENDERSONVILLE, Tennessee—The U.S. hotel industry is projected to experience continued but muted performance growth through 2017, according to STR and Tourism Economics’ final forecast of 2016.
“As supply eventually outpaces demand, rate will determine the level of RevPAR (revenue per available room) growth the industry experiences for the next several years,” said Amanda Hite, STR’s president and CEO. “Given the continued lack of pricing power being displayed, we expect performance to weaken a bit for the final quarter of 2016 then decelerate more in 2017 as hoteliers become less confident in pushing rate.
“Nonetheless, demand is still growing to all-time highs, and RevPAR will continue to reach record levels.”
For total-year 2016, the U.S. hotel industry is predicted to report flat occupancy at 65.4%, a 3.1% rise in average daily rate to US$124.10 and a 3.1% increase in RevPAR to US$81.18.
Among the Chain Scale segments, the Independent segment is expected to see the only year-over-year increase in occupancy (+0.5%) as well as the largest increases in ADR (+3.7%) and RevPAR (+4.2%). The lowest rate of overall performance growth is expected in the Luxury segment (RevPAR +1.6%).
Of the Top 25 Markets, 13 are expected to experience RevPAR performance between 0% and +5.0% for 2016. Eight markets are expected to see RevPAR growth in the range of +5.0% to +10.0%: Atlanta, Georgia; Dallas, Texas; Los Angeles/Long Beach, California; Minneapolis/St. Paul, Minnesota-Wisconsin; Nashville, Tennessee; Norfolk/Virginia Beach, Virginia; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania-New Jersey; and Tampa/St. Petersburg, Florida.
Three markets are projected to see RevPAR performance between 0% and -5.0%. Houston, Texas, is the only market expected to report a RevPAR decline between -10.0% and -15.0%.
For 2017, STR and Tourism Economics project the U.S. hotel industry to report a 0.5% decrease in occupancy to 65.1% but increases in ADR (+2.8% to US$127.61) and RevPAR (+2.3% to US$83.05). Also in 2017, supply (+2.0) is expected to outpace demand (+1.5%) for the first time since 2009.
All but three Top 25 Markets are expected to report RevPAR performance between 0% and +5.0%. Those other three markets are projected to experience performance between 0% and -5.0%: Houston; Miami/Hialeah, Florida; and New York, New York.
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