HENDERSONVILLE, Tennessee—Spring break is an annual ritual for American students and families during the month of March. This year, the two biggest weeks were 9-13 March and 16-20 March. It is estimated that close to four million college students were on break during these two weeks. By looking at the spring break numbers, we might be able to get an early indication of summer performance.
I looked at daily data for some of the most popular destinations in the first three months of 2009. My first observation was the large number of days where there was positive occupancy percent change. I was surprised to see so many days where these destinations were performing better this year than last year.
Places such as Daytona Beach, Florida, and South Padre, Texas, had more than 50 percent of the days through March with positive year-over-year occupancy percent change. It was also interesting to see some of these destinations were performing well during January and February.
Here is a recap of the destinations and daily data for the first three months of the year. The figures indicate the number of days with occupancy percent change greater than or equal to zero.
Days with Positive Occupancy Percent Change
| Destination |
January |
February |
March |
Total |
| Daytona Beach, Florida |
11 |
22 |
20 |
53 |
| South Padre, Texas |
23 |
13 |
11 |
47 |
| Key West, Florida |
4 |
18 |
15 |
37 |
| Oceanside, California |
10 |
13 |
13 |
36 |
| Panama City, Florida |
14 |
5 |
16 |
35 |
| Fort Walton Beach, Florida |
3 |
8 |
19 |
30 |
| Ft Lauderdale, Florida |
12 |
11 |
5 |
28 |
| Myrtle Beach, South Carolina |
15 |
8 |
3 |
26 |
| Clearwater, Florida |
10 |
1 |
13 |
24 |
| Orlando/Buena Vista, Florida |
8 |
9 |
2 |
19 |
| Scottsdale, Arizona |
9 |
3 |
7 |
19 |
| Lake Havasu, Arizona |
3 |
2 |
4 |
9 |
| South Beach, Florida |
6 |
0 |
2 |
8 |
| Total |
128 |
113 |
130 |
371 |
Source: Smith Travel Research
Next, I focused on the month of March, the month during which spring break typically falls. I determined the year-to-date occupancy percent change for the total U.S. and then determined how many days in March were above the YTD average. Some of these destinations had many days in March above the average. Places such as Key West, Florida, Daytona Beach, and Fort Walton Beach, Florida, all posted 20-plus positive percent change.
Here are some of the best destinations, showing their March monthly and YTD occupancy percent change and the number of days in March that were greater than the YTD average. It is interesting to note the destinations below experienced higher percent change in March than the YTD average for the rest of the country. I included the total U.S. numbers for perspective.
| Destination |
March average % change |
YTD average % change |
# days above |
| Key West, Florida |
-0.4 |
-1.4 |
22 |
| Daytona Beach, Florida |
2.1 |
1.7 |
20 |
| Fort Walton Beach, Florida |
2 |
-3.8 |
20 |
| Oceanside, California |
-3 |
-3.1 |
19 |
| Panama City, Florida |
-3.1 |
-3.1 |
17 |
| Clearwater, Florida |
-1.6 |
-3.3 |
15 |
| Total U.S. |
-11.7 |
-10.9 |
|
Source: Smith Travel Research
Lastly, I charted the March daily data for the destinations to see which days and weeks were most affected. The data suggested spring break in 2008 started earlier, perhaps because of the early date for Easter last year. The largest change started as early as Friday, 6 March and then ended on Saturday, 21 March when everyone headed back to school or work.
The chart below displays performance for three destinations. It is interesting to see the ups and downs during this time period related to weekends and the beginning and end of the weeks. It also is interesting to see how different weeks seemed to be more popular at different destinations, probably related to local school schedules.
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In conclusion, many destinations experienced strong spring break occupancy percent change numbers. Hopefully, this favorable performance bodes well for a strong summer vacation season and more positive numbers.
