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Pricing case study: Deep vs. moderate discounting (part 1)

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24 August 2009
By Lana Yoshii
VP, Content Management, STR
HotelNewsNow.com columnist
lana@str.com

HENDERSONVILLE, Tennessee—Hoteliers have been hearing different messages from opposing directions, ranging from “get as much business as you can—more heads in beds” to “more rate means more to the bottom line.” Does encouraging properties to have the highest market premiums result in the most profitable solution for hotels at the end of the day?

This article will showcase a case study of two actual hotels competing in the same market and how their marketing and sales strategies have affected their room revenue streams during these challenging economic times. The hotels are located in a downtown sector of a major U.S. market. They are branded, upper-upscale properties each with 400 to 450 rooms. Their competitive set (with them included) is made up of five upper-upscale hotels.

In the chart below, you can see that from 1998 to June 2002, both hotels switched on and off with the highest revenue per available room premiums. But in July 2008, Hotel A started to consistently capture stronger monthly RevPAR indexes than Hotel B. The hotel captured these index premiums from having higher occupancy indexes. In January 2009, Hotel B started capturing higher RevPAR with consistently higher occupancy and average daily rate indexes until April 2009. From April through June 2009, Hotel A regained RevPAR premiums by having higher occupancy indexes.  

NOTE: The red dotted line section in the chart reflects the months of the 2001 recession.
Source: STR


NOTE: The red dotted line section in the chart reflects the months of the 2001 recession.
Source: STR


NOTE: The red dotted line section in the chart reflects the months of the 2001 recession.
Source: STR

From July 2008 through June 2009, Hotel A’s average room rate declined 11 percent, while Hotel B’s rate declined at almost half that rate. Although Hotel A discounted more aggressively than Hotel B, its occupancy declined 11 percent while Hotel B’s occupancy declined 6 percent. In that 12-month period, Hotel A’s total room revenue averaged a 21-percent decline versus Hotel B’s average decline of 12 percent. 

Percent change comparisons
  Occupancy % Change1 ADR % Change1 Rm Revenue % Change1
  Hotel A Hotel B Hotel A Hotel B Hotel A Hotel B
Jul 08 -15.0% -27.2% 8.0%   6.4% -8.2% -22.5%
Aug 08 -15.6 -0.6 -1.3 -2.6 -16.7 -3.2
Sep 08 -0.5 -2.5 -3.7 3.9 -4.2 1.3
Oct 08   -9.2 -5.4 -7.8 -8.3 -16.3 -13.2
Nov 08 -17.0 -16.5 -8.8 -3.1 -24.2 -19.0
Dec 08 -2.0 12.2 -7.2 -0.9 -9.1  11.2
Jan 09 -8.2 4.1 -14.4 -6.3 -21.4 -2.5
Feb 09 -21.0 -6.7 -8.9 -7.7 -28.0 -13.9
Mar 09 -12.2 7.2 -25.6 -11.4 -34.7 -5.0
Apr 09 -18.2 -12.9 -20.5 -19.9 -35.0 -30.2
May 09 -12.7 -8.1 -18.0 -17.2 -28.4 -23.9
Jun 09 7.7 -4.2 -21.7 -3.8 -15.7 -7.9
1 Percent change versus previous year.
Source: STR

In this example, Hotel B’s restraint in deeper discounting during this current recession has helped mitigate its loss in year-over-year room revenue.

From July 2007 through June 2008, Hotel A’s ADR was US$165 and Hotel B’s ADR was US$156—a US$9 spread. From July 2008 through June 2009, Hotel A’s average daily rate was US$146 (a US$19 decline) and Hotel B’s ADR was US$146 (a US$10 decline). It appears Hotel A managed its rate to match Hotel B’s rate. In doing so, they didn’t captured enough demand that otherwise would have gone to competitors to generate a slower decline in room revenue loss. Now their customers are starting to get used to paying about US$20 less than they had previously paid. Would the hotel have been better off discounting to a lesser degree to maintain rate integrity, yet likely losing more of its occupancy market share premium? Time will tell what efforts it will take for the hotel to regain its revenue growth momentum.

In the second part of this two-part article, you will see what the effects of these two hotel’s pricing decisions was on profitability.

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5 Comments
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28 August 2009 at 2:04 PM Central Time
In response to: Pricing case study: Deep vs. moderate discounting (part 1)
rhcaldwell commented:
I'm not sure what point the author wants to make with this data the outcome (A's -the discounter- occupancy declines more than B's) is counterintuitive, to be sure. My question is, is it representative of the larger marketplace? What I'm taking away from it is that the differences between A & B may be more-closely corelated to other factors not measured, such as brand affiliation, management, marketing, or promotional efforts, as others have suggested previously. At best, a sample size of 1 in each test population (high/low discounters) calls the validity of this entire analysis into question. I appreciate the effort, but mourn the apparent lack of statistical rigor in the analysis and presentation. Right now, misinformation may be worse than no information.

26 August 2009 at 9:29 AM Central Time
In response to: Pricing case study: Deep vs. moderate discounting (part 1)
Yan commented:
It appears on your graphs that Hotel A, outperformed (in revenue terms) Hotel B from Jan 04 to Jan 07, even though Hotel A steadily increased its rates YoY. In my opinion, for this to happen over a three year period and the relatively more expensive hotel to capture higher occupancy rates must be attributed to better management and/or services.

25 August 2009 at 4:16 PM Central Time
In response to: Pricing case study: Deep vs. moderate discounting (part 1)
Lana Yoshii commented:
I appreciate this feedback! I wish I had reliable access to rack and discounted rates, significant management/ownership changes, capital expenditures and trends in their guest satisfaction ratings. Now THAT would be a great case study! I can’t share which brands or hotels are part of this study as we have strict confidentiality agreements with our data participants. That said the two brands compared in this study have had consistently similar guest loyalty. According to the hotels’ websites, they’ve both undergone significant renovations within the last couple of years. However, I cannot verify what they spent the capital on - high customer impact areas or other back-of-house items. If you (or anyone else) would be willing to share your hotels’ data (e.g., customer satisfaction trends, historical capital expenditures, booked or consumed rate activity) I would be happy to do a more in-depth case study! Regarding the market mix question, STR only tracks three segments: Transient, Group and Contract. The comment about movement in mix changes has intrigued me, and I will look at the hotels’ data more closely to see what other insights can be found. Stay tuned for more details!

24 August 2009 at 11:00 AM Central Time
In response to: Pricing case study: Deep vs. moderate discounting (part 1)
SA commented:
I agree with the previous comment; the study does not either mention the business mix impact compared to LY. Have there been major business mix changes YOY that affect the ARR? What segments have been discounted? Premium or lower rated ones? Discounting can certainly be detrimental, but it very much depends on what segment. Thanks.



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