DURHAM, New Hampshire—Economic research firm e-forecasting.com in conjunction with Smith Travel Research announced the United States Hotel Industry Leading Indicator, HIL, went up in October. HIL went up 0.4% in October, after a decrease of 1.1% in September.
HIL, a monthly leading indicator for the U.S. hotel industry, is a composite leading indicator that on average leads the industry’s business activity four to five months in advance. The latest monthly change brought the index to a reading of 113.7. The index was set to equal 100 in 2000.
Looking at its six-month growth rate, a signal of turning points, the Hotel Industry's Leading Indicator recorded growth of 1.7% during October, which was the same level reached in September. This compares to a long-term annual growth rate of 3.5%, the same as the annual growth rate of the states’ overall economic activity.
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Seven of the nine components that make up Hotel Industry's Leading Indicator had a positive contribution in October: Labor Market Tightness; Weekly Hours in Hotels; Hotel Profitability; Interest Rate Spread; New Orders for Manufactured Goods; Housing Activity and National Vacation Barometer. Two of the nine components had a negative or zero contribution to Hotel Industry's Leading Indicator in October: International Visitors Future Demand and Oil Prices.
“October's HIL report brings some light to the last few dark months. In October, we see month-over-month growth and also the six-month growth rate held steady at 1.7% rather than continuing its nine-month run of declines. The industry is showing some resiliency and we will look to next month's report to see if the fundamentals continue to grow,” commented Maria Simos, CEO of e-forecasting.com.
The U.S. Hotel Industry Leading Indicator, or HIL for short, is a monthly leading indicator for the industry. Building off the tracking success of HIP, the real-time indicator for the U.S. hotel industry, HIL was built as a composite indicator that uses nine different components that, on average, when put together have led the industry four to five months in advance of a change in direction in the industry business cycle. It provides useful information about the future direction of the U.S. hotel industry.