BOULDER, Colorado—Before making landfall in the U.S., Hurricane Sandy started her path of destruction in the Caribbean.
The storm had a dramatic impact on occupancy levels in the region—either because travelers canceled their visits or because vacationers cut their stays short. Average daily rates, however, remained moderate.
Using STR data, an analysis was made comparing the performance for the period from Monday, 22 October through Saturday, 27 October. For example, Monday, 22 October 2012 was compared to Monday, 20 October 2011.
(Next week, STR will have data available covering the period in which the storm unleashed on the U.S. STR is the parent company of HotelNewsNow.com.)
STR collects data from many hotels throughout the Caribbean. However, not all hotels report daily data, and not all hotels reported each day for the analysis period for both 2011 and 2012. The findings reflect 68 properties who did report data. The concentrations of these hotels were not spread proportionally throughout, so the results might be skewed. The objective is to get a general sense of how hotels were impacted.
Monday, 22 October
According to the Associated Press article, “Hurricane Sandy, Day by Day,” the tropical depression formed over southwest Caribbean, about 320 miles south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica. Six hours later, it grew into a tropical storm forced called Sandy.
The following series of images show the percent change in occupancy from this year to last, color-coded by severity. Green shows positive change, red shows a decline. The emphasis for this analysis is occupancy change, as ADR change appeared moderate throughout the period.
Click to enlarge.
For Monday, before the storm was a threat, occupancy change was already a mixed-bag through the region, with some areas (Trinidad & Tobago and San Juan) experiencing strong gains from the Monday a year earlier, while the areas in red were in decline. Using Nassau as a point of reference, the reporting hotels from this area were about flat in occupancy compared to last year.
Tuesday, 23 October
As the storm strengthened, Jamaica and Cuba began making preparations.
Click to enlarge.
In the course of one day, even before the storm hit, many areas lost occupancy. Nassau saw a 17% decline from the same day last year, and Jamaica saw a 10% decline. Puerto Rico, which had shown stellar gains the day before, still reflected occupancy growth, but it was far diminished from earlier in the week. It stands to reason that, given warning, tourists could have chosen to cut their stays short and left the islands ahead of the storm, or expected arrivals remained home.
Wednesday, 24 October
Sandy became a hurricane before slamming into Jamaica, west of Kingston, according to the AP. The storm crossed the island within five hours.
Click to enlarge.
The reporting hotels in Jamaica were down only 8.5% in occupancy on the day the storm hit Kingston, which again is logical. Travelers could neither get in or out, so occupancy change is reflective of the previous day. Nassau occupancy declined nearly 27%, while Puerto Rico, which had the greatest concentration of reporting hotels, enjoyed year-over-year occupancy growth of 12.5%, albeit somewhat less than the previous day.
Thursday, 25 October
Sandy became a Category 2 hurricane, sweeping across eastern Cuba in less than seven hours without losing force. Nearby Haiti suffered the most damage. And by early afternoon, the hurricane rolled into the Bahamas, finally weakening with winds falling to 90 mph, said the AP.
Click to enlarge.
The data from Cuba was too sparse during this time period for a relevant gauge of impact during the storm. Occupancy declines in the primary reporting areas were fairly consistent with the previous day overall.
Friday, 26 October
The AP reports that after Sandy emerges from the Bahamas, it weakened to winds of 75 mph.
Click to enlarge.
Friday's numbers were milder, with Nassau posting an 11% decline in occupancy levels compared to the same day of week last year. As the storm headed north toward the U.S., most other Caribbean nations posted slightly greater occupancy declines (or smaller gains) from the previous year, including the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and Barbados, suggesting the initial impact of travelers canceling trips that were scheduled to begin that weekend. However, some other Caribbean countries showed contradictory trends. Again the small sample of reporting properties makes the task of teasing out obvious trends difficult at best.
As the daily numbers for the affected U.S. areas come out, we expect a large enough sample where clear trends will be more obvious.
