MEMPHIS, Tennessee—If great minds think alike, then last week’s Southern Lodging Summit @ Memphis was a gathering of brilliance as keynote speakers left and right echoed the same messages about the current recession—from beginning to end.

“This is the first time I’ve seen anything like this,” said Roger Dow, a former Marriott International executive who now serves as the leader of the U.S. Travel Association. “You talk about what a fragile industry this industry is. As goes lodging, as goes travel, as goes the U.S. economy. We’ve got to get people on Capitol Hill to realize that.”

Bobby Bowers, senior VP for Smith Travel Research, said this down cycle truly is unique.

“These are just epic (revenue per available room) declines,” Bowers said, STR’s projection that year-over-year RevPAR will decline 17.1 percent when the dust settles at the end of 2009.

So that puts the hotel industry in a precarious position as it attempts to survive historic drops in metrics while it searches for a way out of the mess. That means one thing, said Laurence Geller, chairman and CEO of Strategic Hotels & Resorts.

“The harsh reality of today’s environment is forcing people to be smarter,” Geller said, adding that operators are running more efficiently than ever, and that he expects that to continue long after this recession is over. “For the first time, owners’ (interests) and operators’ interests are truly aligned.”

Geller, who isn’t afraid of sarcasm in any venue, even poked fun at himself. He wondered aloud who wanted to listen to him “when my stock is at 1 (dollar) when it used to be at 25 (dollars).”

He said his approach to operating Strategic Hotels during a recession is no different than when business is booming.

“I refuse to run my business as if the world’s coming to an end,” Geller said.

And according to the keynoters, the hotel world is far from coming to an end.

During the eight to 10 weeks leading up to the conference (which was held on Aug. 19), the number of inquiries by groups at his company’s hotels quadrupled, Geller said.

“We do see some positive signs in relative terms. We’re starting to find a balance between supply and development,” said Joe Martin, chairman of the American Hotel & Lodging Association. “And some capital is beginning to loosen up. Some of the smaller deals are being done under US$10 million. Some of the opportunity for refinancing where people have relationships with local bankers has begun to brighten up and doesn’t look so bleak.”

Bowers pointed to some improvement in weekend performance metrics as a positive sign.

Meanwhile, there’s one place where any rebound will occur: the same place it started, in New York, Geller said.

A five-letter word that caused the economic mess is one that sees as many cycles as the lodging industry: greed, he added.

“Do not even confuse brains with bull markets,” Geller said.

With the aforementioned positive signs hovering over the industry, it’s anyone’s guess what a recovery will look like. But Geller has a definite recovery pattern in mind, and said that the industry will be in full swing again between 2013 and 2015.

“I believe the recovery will look like a Nike swoosh,” Geller said. “It’ll be gradual … slow and sustained. … Lodging demand will not come back universally. It will come back by segment, by area.”

The speakers said the biggest hurdle the industry has to overcome is the demonization of travel that has taken place during the past year. Ever since an AIG event last year at a luxury resort in California put the spotlight on what the general public considers boondoggles, the hotel industry has been reeling, the keynotes said.

The demonizing of that travel is so severe there have been members of our association that have taken resort out of their name,” Martin said.

Dow said it’s time for the travel industry—in particular the hotel industry—to take a stand and make sure Americans know the breadth of its reach. He said the travel industry is a US$770-billion industry that employs one of eight Americans.

“You hear all the rhetoric about the auto industry … (but) we’re the Rodney Dangerfield of industries and we’ve got to change that,” Dow said.

He said a meeting between hotel-industry leaders and President Obama earlier this year helped turned the tide. According to Dow, the discussion included Bill Marriott, chairman and CEO of Marriott International, talking to the president like he was a regional manager. After which, the president truly understands the value of the hotel industry to the U.S. economy.