So far, we’ve seen two weeks of daily numbers in October, and it’s safe to say there’s good news on the horizon. The first week, 27 September through 3 October (week No. 35 of 2009), there were positive signs. Ten of the top 25 markets experienced occupancy growth for the week (see below). Transient occupancy percent change was positive for the total U.S. (4.9 percent), as well as the luxury (8.8) and upper upscale (6.5) groups. Seven of the nine regions experienced transient occupancy growth, as well as the urban location group (5.6 percent).

This week, STR released numbers for 4 October through 10 October (week No. 36 of 2009). Last week, the calendar shift of Yom Kippur helped performance. Granted, the last year comparables are getting easier, but still there were significant gains. The percent-change numbers for the total U.S. were -5.4 percent (occupancy), -7 percent (average daily rate) and -12 percent (revenue per available room). The RevPAR number was the best weekly number we’ve seen since the first week of 2009, with the exception of the week with the Labor Day switch this year versus last year. 

Two scale groups had positive occupancy percent change—luxury (3.9 percent) and upper upscale (1.4 percent). The upper-upscale group also experienced only single-digit RevPAR decline (-7.6 percent). The urban location group also experienced positive occupancy percent change (2.2 percent) and only single-digit RevPAR decline (-5.8 percent). Nine of the top 25 markets had occupancy growth for the week (see below). Four of these markets also experienced positive RevPAR percent change numbers—Minneapolis at 6.8 percent, New Orleans at 13.2 percent, San Francisco at 4.8 percent and St Louis at 10.9 percent. 

Another interesting observation and bright sign for last week was in the day-of-week information. The strongest two RevPAR days last week were Wednesday (-8.3 percent) and Thursday (-9.4 percent). Even more encouraging is the total U.S. running 28-day percent change numbers at the end of last week. These are some of the best running 28-day numbers we’ve seen in a long time, excluding the Labor Day switch (see below).

There were additional positive indicators in the segmentation data for last week. Transient occupancy percent change continued to be strong. It was positive for the total U.S. (0.8 percent), as well as the luxury (1.5 percent) and upper-upscale (2.8 percent) groups. Many other segments experienced transient occupancy growth, including the South Atlantic region (2.1 percent) and the urban location group (2.3 percent). Of the top 25 markets, there were 18 markets with positive transient occupancy percent change.

Even better news last week was a large number of positive group occupancy percent changes, including luxury scale, urban location and three regions (see below). The three regions even posted positive group RevPAR percent change numbers (3.5 percent, 5.1 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively). Of the top 25 markets, there were 13 markets with positive group occupancy percent change (see below). Nine of these 13 markets also experienced positive RevPAR percent change.

So, the first two weeks of October have encouraging signs. Hopefully, we’ll continue to see more positive occupancy percent change numbers, especially in the group segment during the rest of the month. We’ll also be able to tell if the good news from last week is simply a holiday anomaly. If the occupancy numbers continue to firm up, we also could hope to see more improvement in the ADR percent change numbers.