SAN DIEGO, California—Though many forecast the gloomy clouds of the economic downturn to linger well into 2010, at least one attendee at the Americas Investment Lodging Summit predicted a break of daylight by the third quarter of 2009.

“I think we’re going to get an economic recovery just in time for back-to-school sales in September,” said Todd Buchholz, former White House director of economic policy.

“Lodging and hospitality is going to benefit from this upswing as well,” he said

The projection came near the end of a keynote session that outlined the contributing factors of the current recessionary climate. From those experiences, he said hoteliers can draw a number of lessons moving forward. 

“Never ever lend to anybody unless you understand more about their business than they do,” he said. “You can’t be involved in any deals unless you know more than your counterparties.”

“There’s no excuse for bad service,” he continued. Buchholz then explained how he received a call from a hotel concierge a few weeks before visiting a resort during Martin Luther King Jr. Day weekend. The concierge called to see if Buchholz wanted to add any extra services for his stay.

“Give (guests) every opportunity to spend money,” he said. “If it means calling them at home beforehand, why not?”

As travelers reallocate their discretionary income, now is the time to tout new or special services and value to attract that demand, Buchholz said. Increasingly, those innovations are being realized through technological advances such as customer databases, user-friendly Web sites and energy efficient systems.

And while the value proposition has never been so important across all segments, Buchholz said this is especially true in the high end of the market.

“Luxury hotels are going to have to prove that they’re offering real value,” he said.

To close, Buchholz again stressed the need for innovation. 

“These are treacherous, tumultuous, dangerous times. In this maelstrom … this now is still the opportunity for prosperity, this now is still the opportunity for innovation.”