STR and Tourism Economics predict the U.S. hotel industry will report flat occupancy for full-year 2017, with a 2.3% increase in both ADR and RevPAR. In 2018, a 2.1% supply increase will outpace demand (+1.9%), causing occupancy to decline 0.2%.
NASHVILLE—Continued modest growth is projected for the U.S. hotel industry through 2018, according to STR and Tourism Economics’ latest forecast released on Thursday morning at the 2017 Hotel Data Conference.
“Demand growth exceeded forecasts during the second quarter, which falls in line with reports that tourism has surpassed expectations,” said Amanda Hite, STR’s president and CEO. “That led us to lift our RevPAR projections for total-year 2017 even with weaker-than-expected ADR growth. That lack of pricing power will be more of an issue in 2018 when occupancy is forecasted to decline. Regardless, industry performance should stay healthy with moderate rate growth pushing RevPAR levels to all-time highs.”
An accuracy report from STR and Tourism Economics showed the companies’ joint U.S. hotel forecast to be the most accurate among top industry prognosticators. To view the detailed accuracy assessment, please CLICK HERE.
Predictions for total-year 2017 are that the U.S. hotel industry will report flat occupancy at 65.5%, a 2.3% rise in average daily rate (ADR) to US$126.94 and a 2.3% increase in revenue per available room (RevPAR) to US$83.09. RevPAR grew more than 3.0% for each year from 2010 to 2016.
The Independent segment is likely to report the largest increases in each of the three key performance metrics: occupancy (+0.4%), ADR (+2.8%) and RevPAR (+3.3%). The lowest rate of overall performance growth is expected in the Upscale segment (RevPAR: +1.0%).
Twenty of the Top 25 Markets are expected to post flat or growing RevPAR for the full year. Most markets will likely see an increase between 0% and 5%; Seattle, Washington, and Norfolk/Virginia Beach, Virginia, are the only U.S. markets expected to record growth in the range of 5% and 10%.
For 2018, STR and Tourism Economics project the U.S. hotel industry to report a 0.2% decrease in occupancy to 65.3% but increases in ADR (+2.5% to US$130.11) and RevPAR (+2.3% to US$84.97). The Independent segment is likely to report flat occupancy as well as the largest increase in ADR (+2.7%) and RevPAR (+2.6%). All other segments are forecasted to see a dip in occupancy.
All Top 25 Markets, with the exception of Miami/Hialeah, Florida, and Houston, Texas, are likely to see RevPAR performance between 0% and +5%. Each of those two markets is expected to see flat to a 5% decrease in RevPAR.
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